The Memphis basketball season may be off to a tepid start, but I’ve got five burning questions as the Tigers prepare to play No. 1-ranked Purdue Thursday afternoon (5 p.m. CT) in the Bahamas.

What’s actually the best lineup?

One of the frustrating things about this Memphis roster is unfortunately it doesn’t seem clear which combination of five players gives the Tigers the best chance to win. There are certain players who feel like they need to be on the floor for Memphis. There are certain players who give more consistent effort. But last year it was pretty clear by the end of the year what the best lineup was: Tyrese Hunter, PJ Haggerty, Colby Rogers, Nick Jourdain and Dain Dainja (with Moussa Cisse off the bench).

I could probably start with Julius Thedford as one of the five, but where do you go from there? Sincere Parker is the only player on the roster with NCAA Tournament experience. He should be in that group, but his effort has clearly not been good enough for Penny Hardaway in the early goings.

What to watch in Memphis’ game against No. 1 Purdue in the Bahamas

If you held me down and made me decide today, I’d probably go with this look:

• PG: Dug McDaniel
• SG: Curtis Givens
• SF: Julius Thedford
• PF: Ashton Hardaway
• C: Simon Majok

This is essentially substituting Majok for Thierno Sylla, but I’m not sure what other options Hardaway has. Parker and Zach Davis haven’t done enough to warrant starting. What’s really killing the Tigers here is Aaron Bradshaw has been a complete dud. A former No. 2 recruit and McDonald’s All-American, he just looks like a shell of himself. If he could somehow figure this out — I’m skeptical, to be clear — it would go a long way in shoring up the Tigers lineup.

How many non-conference games will the Tigers win?

I think the best-case scenario is Memphis goes into American Conference play with a 5-7 record. The Tigers are going to be underdogs on a neutral site in both games this week. (They’re already 15-point underdogs against No. 1-ranked Purdue.) When they return from the Bahamas, they’ll be underdogs in four of their next seven. It’s certainly in Hardaway’s DNA to spring an upset, but it’ll take more than that to enter January with even a .500 record. My prediction is the Tigers will be 4-8 heading into their New Year’s Eve matchup with North Texas.

Will the Tigers win the American?

They’re not currently favored to do so; that would be South Florida. The picture is fairly bleak right now. That’s just the reality. If you remove Hardaway’s first year at Memphis, which was mostly made up of Tubby Smith holdovers, this is the lowest KenPom ranking for Memphis this time of the year by around 40 spots. Throughout the course of the season, historically, that number goes down more often than it goes up. If Memphis identifies a lineup that can consistently bring effort, I’d feel better about it. The league is so bad even this version of Memphis will remain in the mix, but winning it? I don’t think I can say that today.

Will that even be enough to make the NCAA Tournament?

That’s the other part of this. It’s no guarantee the American Conference regular-season champion gets an at-large bid. It didn’t happen in 2023-24 when South Florida won the league. The Tigers will more than likely need to pick up a signature non-conference win to keep their at-large hopes alive even if they win the league for a second straight year.

What happens if Memphis misses the tournament?

Whoa! Way too early. We’re still processing the Memphis football program and Ryan Silverfield not making the American championship game. We’ll cross this bridge if we have to — but not now, not today.